LDR Score - Loan Default Risk Score

Much has been written about what caused the Foreclosure Crisis, but it cannot be denied that a large part of the Crisis was the result of people buying homes that they could not afford.  

 

Loans were provided to homeowners primarily based upon Credit Scores.  However, as even Fannie Mae admits, Credit Scores were not meant to evaluate Default Risk on individual mortgage loans.  Today, Fannie Mae still uses Credit Scores, Equity and Debt Ratios to approve loans, but each category is “rated” individually, and not in an integrated manner. 

 

Under new proposed regulations, the “Qualified Residential Mortgage” (QRM) will use Equity, Debt Ratios, and the previous 24 month history of late payments to approve loans.  However, it does nothing to access actual default risk.  Even worse, non QRM loans do not even afford this protection.

 

The LDR Score is a comprehensive methodology of evaluating the Default Risk of individual loans.  The score was developed after examining thousands of both performing loans and defaulted loans, and thousands of modifications.  The results of the exams “identified” common characteristics of “troubled” or “defaulted loans” that did not exist in “strong” performing loans. 

 

Further examination of the loans found that these same characteristics were usually present when the loans were underwriten.  However, underwriting processes were not sufficient to identify these characteristics, or to properly evaluate the risk. 

 

LFI Analytics has developed a complex algorithm that uses the “identified characteristics” of defaulting loans and incorporated those characteristics with other known rish factors to determine Default Risk of individual loans.   The end result is the Loan Default Risk Score (LDR Score).

 

 

Major Benefits of the LDR Score include:

 

Quantitative Measurement Of Default Risk. 

 

Easily incorporated into underwriting analysis for better approvals.

 

Improved Portfolio Risk Management.

 

Provides loan purchasers a method to determine if a loan fits their portfolio.

 

Offers Rating Agencies a measure for evaluating MBS.

 

Lessens Risk of Foreclosures

 



Leader Score
The LDR Score offers the lender or investor the ability to know and understand the default risk in any loan being considered for funding or purchase.
LDR Score-web.pptx
Microsoft Power Point presentation [261.4 KB]

LDR Score For Modification

The LDR Score for Modifications is the latest addition to either an attorney's arsenal for arguing for a loan modification or for a lender to approve a loan modification.  Based upon the LDR Score for new loans, the LDR Modification Score determines the likelihood of redefault of a loan being modified.

 

Loan Level characteristics, including borrower characteristics are used to derive the score.  If the modification terms reflected in the LDR Score show a high likelihood of redefault, then the modification terms can be changed to show a decreasing likelihood of redefault.  Ultimately, the goal would be to find modification terms that present a reasonable Default Risk Score that would suggest that the borrower could repay the loan, provided circumstances did not change in the future for the worse.

 

 



LDR Score for Modifications
Know the Default Risk of Loan Modification terms. Design the best terms with the lowest default risk.

Create a win/win scenario for all parties.
LDR Modification Score-1.pptx
Microsoft Power Point presentation [258.3 KB]